The Economic Basis of Peace: Linkages between Economic Growth and International Conflict

By William H. Mott IV | Go to book overview

hypothesis to focus the search. The test, then, is in determining whether these relationships hold for some useful varieties of data, and the research task emphasizes refining and determining the scope of both data and regularities into a single hypothesis, with a focus on some manipulable independent variable. Whereas the scientific method begins with at least one deterministic hypothesis, the search for regularities culminates with a single probabilistic hypothesis, but does not attempt to verify or prove it in any deterministic way. Despite nondeterminism and lack of "proof," the value of simple lawlike regularities is not a peculiar feature of complex systems in the physical sciences, but seems particularly useful to social scientific analyses.


NOTES
1.
Franklin M. Fisher, "On the Cost of Approximate Specification in Simultaneous Equation Estimation," in Albert Ando, Franklin M. Fisher & Herbert A. Simon, eds., Essays on the Structure of Social Science Models ( Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 1963), 32-63. This position is supported by the theorem that if a system is near- decomposable with only small "feedbacks" relative to primary influences, system-level analysis may plausibly proceed as if it were completely decomposable (partitioned, recursive, and epistemologically hierarchic), with only minor short-run cognitive or epistemic costs at subsystem levels. The Ando-Fisher theorem is, however, only an existence" theorem that does not establish tests for "sufficient smallness" of feedback. Despite this weakness, aggregation and partition will, over the general system, "be at worst trivially possible and at best quite helpful." Albert Ando & Franklin M. Fisher, "Near-Decomposability, Partition and Aggregation, and the Relevance of Stability Discussions," in Ando, Fisher & Simon, Essays on the Structure of Social Science Models, 92-106; 100.
2.
Nazli Choucri & Robert C. North, "Dynamics of International Conflict: Some Policy Implications of Population, Resources, and Technology," World Politics 24 supplementary issue (Spring 1972): 97.

-269-

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The Economic Basis of Peace: Linkages between Economic Growth and International Conflict
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Recent Titles in Contributions in Economics and Economic History ii
  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Preface vii
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • 1 - Introduction 1
  • Notes 6
  • 2 - Historical Perspectives 9
  • Notes 30
  • 3 - Theoretical Approaches 37
  • Notes 97
  • 4 - An Empirical Approach 107
  • Notes 164
  • 5 - A Quandary and a Conjecture 171
  • Notes 188
  • 6 - What It All Means 193
  • Notes 229
  • Appendix A: On Economic Stagnation 237
  • Notes 238
  • Appendix B: On the Three Traditions 239
  • Notes 240
  • Appendix C: On Long Waves 241
  • Notes 243
  • Appendix D: On Foreign Investment 244
  • Note 245
  • Appendix E: On Division of Labor 246
  • Notes 246
  • Appendix F: On Alternative Economies 248
  • Notes 249
  • Appendix G: On Protoindustrialization 251
  • Notes 252
  • Appendix H: On Confidence Levels 253
  • Note 254
  • Appendix I: On Growth Processes 255
  • Notes 256
  • Appendix J: On Static Models 257
  • Appendix K: On Defense of Realism 259
  • Notes 260
  • Appendix L: On Growth Strategies 261
  • Appendix M: On Dualism and Growth 262
  • Notes 265
  • Appendix N: On Lawlike Regularities 267
  • Notes 269
  • Bibliography 271
  • Author Index 289
  • Subject Index 293
  • About the Author 305
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