Judgment and Decision Making: Neo-Brunswikian and Process-Tracing Approaches

By Peter Juslin; Henry Montgomery | Go to book overview
Save to active project
Juslin, 1993b). Later research has made clear that even unbiased random error will introduce overconfidence (e.g., Erev et al., 1994), and representative selection of items will thus eliminate overconfidence completely only when random error is zero or marginal.
2.
It is important to distinguish this sample-size parameter from the parameter with the same name in the combined error model. Sample size in the combined error model refers to the size of the retrieved sample of facts used to make decisions and to assess the probability, whereas the sample size in the sensory sampling model is the size of the memory that holds the transient sensory input used for decisions and confidence.

REFERENCES

Baranski J. V., & Petrusic W. M. ( 1994). "The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments". Perception and Psychophysics, 55, 412-428.

Björkman M. ( 1994). "Internal cue theory: Calibration and resolution of confidence in general knowledge". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 58, 386-405.

Björkman M., Justin P., & Winman A. ( 1993). "Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon". Perception anti Psychophysics, 54, 75-81.

Brenner L. A., Koehler D. J., Liberman V., & Tversky A. ( 1996). "Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: A critical examination". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 212-219.

Brunswik E. ( 1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Crawford J. D., & Stankov L. ( 1996). Individual differences in the realism of conference judgments: Overconfidence in measures of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Unpublished manuscript, University of Technology, Sydney.

Edwards W. ( 1982). "Conservatism in human information processing". In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic , & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 359-369). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Erev I., Wallsten T. S., & Budescu D. V. ( 1994). "Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes". Psychological Review, 101, 519-527.

Ferrell W. R. ( 1995). "A model for realism of confidence judgments: Implications for underconfidence in sensory discrimination". Perception and Psychophysics, 57, 246-254.

Gigerenzer G. ( 1993). "The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models". In K. I. Manktelow & D. E. Over (Eds.), Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 129-161). London: Routledge.

Gigerenzer G., & Goldstein D. G. ( 1996). "Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality". Psychological Review, 103, 650-669.

Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U., & Kleinbölting H. ( 1991). "Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence". Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.

Gilden D. L., & Proffitt D. R. ( 1989). "Understanding collision dynamics". Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 15, 372-383.

Gilden D. L., & Proffitt D. R. ( 1994). "Heuristic judgment of mass ratio in two-body collisions". Perception and Psychophysics, 56, 708-720.

Griffin D., & Tversky A. ( 1992). "The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence". Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411-435.

Hammond K. R. ( 1966). "Probabilistic functionalism: Egon Brunswik's integration of the history, theory, and method of psychology". In K. R. Hammond (Ed.), The psychology of Egon, Brunswik. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston.

Hammond K. R. ( 1996). Human judgment and social policy: Irreductible uncertainty, inevitable, error, unavoidable injustice. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

-93-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
Loading One moment ...
Project items
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Judgment and Decision Making: Neo-Brunswikian and Process-Tracing Approaches
Table of contents

Table of contents

Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

While we understand printed pages are helpful to our users, this limitation is necessary to help protect our publishers' copyrighted material and prevent its unlawful distribution. We are sorry for any inconvenience.
Full screen
/ 346

matching results for page

Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

Cited passage

Welcome to the new Questia Reader

The Questia Reader has been updated to provide you with an even better online reading experience.  It is now 100% Responsive, which means you can read our books and articles on any sized device you wish.  All of your favorite tools like notes, highlights, and citations are still here, but the way you select text has been updated to be easier to use, especially on touchscreen devices.  Here's how:

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select.

OK, got it!

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.

Are you sure you want to delete this highlight?