Demography and Retirement: The Twenty-First Century

By Anna M. Rappaport; Sylvester J. Schieber | Go to book overview

6
Implications of Demographic Change for Design of Retirement Programs
John H. BiggsThis paper speculates on the influences of demographic changes on private pension plan design in the early part of the 21st century. For concreteness of exposition, I will take the point of view of the Board of Directors of a newly formed company that has grown rapidly to a relatively large size (at least 1,000 employees), and has decided in the year 2020 to establish a pension plan. This point of view abstracts from the variety of historical forces that influence an existing pension plan of an organization with a significant history -- accordingly, toe paper does not attempt to cope with the rich detail and considerations that changes in such a plan would entail. As this Board, with assistance from its Advisors, considers the basic design of its plan, the question is: how will its decisions be influenced by the demographic changes that will have occurred since 1990?The demographic changes that are likely to occur over the next thirty years are described in other papers presented in this Symposium. This paper selects from these changes the following trends which seem to the author as likely to be the most significant to pension plan designers in 2020:
1. (1) The general aging of the population - the " Florida effect" - in which the whole country takes on the present ( 1990s) age profile of the State of Florida - will be a major feature. Specific important aspects will be: younger employees will be in relatively short supply, and employees between ages 60 and 70 will be much more numerous than in 1990. (See Figure 2, Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 1987, 2000, 2010, and 2030 in Preston, ch. 2, p 24.)
2. (2) The "squaring of the mortality curve," due to lower mortality rates among those 65 to 80 years old, will produce a rapidly growing super-old group - over 85. (See Preston, op. cit., who questions attempts to infer

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Demography and Retirement: The Twenty-First Century
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • MEMBERS OF THE PENSION RESEARCH COUNCIL v
  • Purpose of the Council vii
  • Contents ix
  • 1: Overview 1
  • Introduction 1
  • 2: Demographic Change in the United States, 1970-2050 19
  • ENDNOTES 47
  • Stephen C. Goss 53
  • Barry Edmonston 57
  • Introduction 57
  • 3: Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets 73
  • Introduction 73
  • Joseph F. Quinn 105
  • 4: Can Our Social Insurance Systems Survive the Demographic Shifts of the Twenty-First Century? 111
  • Introduction 112
  • ENDNOTES 148
  • 5: The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Capital Formation 163
  • Introduction 163
  • ENDNOTES 180
  • Alicia H. Munnell 183
  • 6: Implications of Demographic Change for Design of Retirement Programs 189
  • 7: Trends in Health Among the American Population 225
  • Introduction 225
  • ENDNOTES 242
  • Discussions 243
  • 8: Population Aging and Retirement Policy: An International Perspective 255
  • Introduction 255
  • ENDNOTES 284
  • Robert J. Myers 293
  • Bibliography 297
  • Index 315
  • Contributors 323
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