M ost of the literature in American Indian historical demography has
focused on a single question: What was the native population of the
Americas in 1492? Although precontact population size has been
widely researched, there is no consensus in sight. Estimates for pre-Columbian
North and South America range from 8 million to 112 million. The growing gap
between low and high estimates makes one wonder about the reliability of any
estimate. The nature of the evidence raises further doubts. Archaeological meth-
ods, such as analysis of skeletal remains and models of an area's carrying capac-
ity, rest on shaky assumptions. Written records are similarly problematic since
the earliest documented population statistics were fragmentary and biased to
support particular goals. In addition, Old World diseases, now recognized as the
major cause of native depopulation, frequently struck Indian communities be-
fore actual European contact and thus before European observers could record
their fragmentary and biased notes on native population size. Research continues on
this issue, however, for not knowing the size of the population in 1492 limits our
ability to gauge the extent of the decline brought on by European contact. ¹

We may never know exactly what the demographic consequences of Euro-
pean conquest were, but everyone agrees that they were severe. In both North
and South America, the native population declined as the influx of Europeans
steadily increased. Some native groups were entirely wiped out by smallpox and
warfare. Others survived through migration and political consolidation. And
still others, though equally vulnerable to the onslaught of new diseases, expanded

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