Aral Sea, with noticeable effects on the economic situation and livelihood of some parts of Central Asia.
Buzan's discussion of durability versus permanency of security complexes is crucial to the analysis of Central Asia since the CA security complex is still in the process of transformation and is therefore prone to change. As will be discussed, the external and internal factors necessary for any change exist in Central Asia. It seems that this change is likely to take the form of overlay, since all the three rivals seek to dominate the region. Domination would mean the incorporation of the CA security complex into that of the dominant rival, thus affecting the existing dynamics of the CA security complex. Buzan's stress on the existence of various interacting and interdependent levels and sectors is specially important to Central Asia because three rival states have been trying to influence that region through different means. It is crucial to consider the role in the region of these powers, one of which is a military superpower and influential at the international level, for its effects on the development of the CA security complex.
Buzan's discussion about the relationship among the three levels of analysis and the impact of the international system on the region is very significant to Central Asia. In particular, his elaboration of the impact of changes in the international system on the region is of special relevance to Central Asia since, as an external factor, the end of the Cold War and the fall of the USSR have weakened the ties between Central Asia and Russia and paved the way for the emergence of the CA security complex. Thus, the fall removed the Russian control that had suppressed the endogenous dynamics of the region for some two centuries.
In short, Buzan's concept of security complex provides a conceptual framework for a more objective analysis of the current situation in Central Asia and a more realistic prediction of its probable future developments based on the discovery of the major trends.
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Publication information: Book title: Regional Security and the Future of Central Asia:The Competition of Iran, Turkey, and Russia. Contributors: Hooman Peimani - Author. Publisher: Praeger Publishers. Place of publication: Westport, CT. Publication year: 1998. Page number: 19.
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