Monetary Policy, Taxation, and International Investment Strategy

By Victor A. Canto; Arthur B. Laffer | Go to book overview

21
The Small-Cap and State Competitive Environment: 1989-90 Update

VICTOR A. CANTO AND ARTHUR B. LAFFER

People tend to move to where they can improve their standard of living. This supply-side tenet has long been ingrained when it comes to East European immigration to the West or Mexican immigration to the United States. But, when this concept combines with the "one man (sic) one vote" principle, the effects are explosive.

Population changes over the past decade projected onto the 1990 census suggest that the three biggest winners will be California, Texas, and Florida. Georgia and Arizona may also pick up as many as two congressional seats each. New York leads the list of losers followed closely by Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan.

States where taxes are high and/or increasing relative to the national norm tend to experience relative population declines. Likewise, in states where taxes are low or falling, population growth is often above average. Congressional seats are allocated to states according to population as measured by decadal census data. It therefore follows that state economic policies, in due course, help to determine political power. Some states are so small that even large changes in their relative tax burdens are not sufficient to warrant a change in their congressional delegations. Likewise, some states are so close to the national norm in tax policies that they, too, experience little change. And finally, while tax policies are important, other factors also play a significant role.

In spite of the myriad of qualifications inherent in this type of research, the results are promising. The state tax burden (i.e., state and local revenue collected

-283-

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Monetary Policy, Taxation, and International Investment Strategy
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures ix
  • Tables xiii
  • Introduction xix
  • Note xlii
  • PART ONE MONETARY POLICY 1
  • 1: Capacity Utilization and Inflation 3
  • 2: World Money and U.S. Inflation 13
  • 3: Alternative Monetary Theories of Inflation 25
  • 5: The Quality of Inflation Indicators 80
  • 6: The Yield Curve 87
  • PART TWO - FISCAL POLICY 93
  • 7 - Bush's Economic Agenda within a Supply-Side Framework 111
  • 8: Tax Amnesty: The Missing Link 113
  • 9: Fifteen Percent is Fine, but Indexing is Divine 123
  • Notes 144
  • 10: Stylized Facts and Fallacies of Capital Gains Tax Rate Reductions and Indexa tion 147
  • 11: Friday the 13th 157
  • 12: Debt and Taxes Are the Only Certainty 165
  • Note 173
  • 13: Borrowed Prosperity 175
  • Notes 187
  • 14: The Savings Monster 189
  • 15: Are We Climbing the Wall of Resistance toward National Health Insurance? 209
  • PART THREE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES 219
  • 16: Tax Rate Reductions and Foreign Exchange Rates 221
  • Notes 230
  • 17: The Trade Balance 233
  • 18: National Paedomorphosis 241
  • PART FOUR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES 255
  • 19: Part I: The Legend 257
  • Notes 267
  • 20: Part II 269
  • 21: The Small-Cap and State Competitive Environment 283
  • 22: International Stock Returns and Real Exchange Rates 301
  • Notes 320
  • Index 321
  • About the Contributors 327
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