Stock Market Cycles: A Practical Explanation

By Steven E. Bolten | Go to book overview

STOCK MARKET CYCLES
A Practical Explanation

STEVEN E. BOLTEN

QUORUM BOOKS

Westport, Connecticut · London

-iii-

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Stock Market Cycles: A Practical Explanation
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Acknowledgments vii
  • 1 - Introduction 1
  • 2 - Causal Valuation Factors 9
  • Note 24
  • Appendix 2A - Reported Earnings Considerations 24
  • Appendix 2B - Definitions 28
  • 3 - Causal Valuation Factors Interaction 31
  • Appendix 3A - The Yield Curve 48
  • 4 - Portfolio Asset Allocation Implications 53
  • Note 70
  • Appendix 4A - Sector Rotation Categories 70
  • 5 - Individual Stock Price Implications 73
  • 6 - Industry Life Cycle 89
  • Notes 104
  • 7 - The Price/Earnings Multiple 105
  • Appendix 7A - The Nongrowth Price/Earnings Multiple Derived 116
  • Appendix 7B - The Default-Risk-Free, Nongrowth Time Horizon Duration 118
  • 8 - Empirical Studies 119
  • The Generation of Stock Market Cycles 120
  • Abstract 120
  • Introduction 120
  • Conclusions 126
  • References 126
  • A Note on Cyclical and Dynamic Aspects of Stock Market Price Cycles 128
  • References 132
  • Long-Term Asset Allocation under Dynamic Interaction of Earnings and Interest Rates 133
  • Abstract 133
  • Introduction 133
  • Conclusions 137
  • References 137
  • A Note on the Price Earnings Multiple 138
  • Notes 141
  • Time Horizon Premiums as a Measure of Stock Market Bubbles 143
  • Introduction 143
  • Conclusion 148
  • References 148
  • Endnotes 148
  • The Influence of Liquidity Services on Beta 149
  • Introduction 149
  • References 160
  • The Impact of Management Depth on Valuation 162
  • Introduction 162
  • Conclusion 164
  • Summary 165
  • Endnote 165
  • Bibliography 167
  • Index 171
  • About the Author 175
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