Turning Points in Business Cycles

By Leonard P. Ayres | Go to book overview
Save to active project


DESPITE the adverse conclusion reached in Chapter XII about purely monetary theories of cycles, there appears to be much illuminating material to be gained from further study of the banking figures. Cyclical changes within the banks appear to have been for many decades the controlling factors in determining changes in short-term interest rates. Cyclical changes in the direction of movement of short-term interest rates seem to have resulted in changes in the courses of security prices. These changes from advancing trends to declining trends, and back again, for bond and stock prices have resulted in creating market conditions that were alternately favorable and unfavorable for the floating of new security issues.

We may well start on an examination of these matters by considering cyclical changes in the deposits and in the loans and investments of all National Banks. Diagram 18 on page 135 shows in its upper part the familiar black silhouette of three typical cycles of business activity during a 10 year period. The solid line in the lower portion shows typical cycles of the deposits of National Banks, and the dashed line represents the typical cycles of loans and investments in the same institutions.

The typical cycles of deposits and of loans and investments were made by finding the percentage deviations at call dates of the deposits and of the combined loans and investments from their 17 place centered moving averages. Figures for the months between call dates were then supplied by straight-line interpolation, and 12 months centered moving averages of these completed series were then computed. The data for the seven full cycles L, M, N, Q, R, S, and T were then combined, first by adding them with their down-


Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
Loading One moment ...
Project items
Cite this page

Cited page

Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Turning Points in Business Cycles


Text size Smaller Larger
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

While we understand printed pages are helpful to our users, this limitation is necessary to help protect our publishers' copyrighted material and prevent its unlawful distribution. We are sorry for any inconvenience.
Full screen
/ 218

matching results for page

Cited passage

Citations are available only to our active members.
Sign up now to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

Cited passage

Welcome to the new Questia Reader

The Questia Reader has been updated to provide you with an even better online reading experience.  It is now 100% Responsive, which means you can read our books and articles on any sized device you wish.  All of your favorite tools like notes, highlights, and citations are still here, but the way you select text has been updated to be easier to use, especially on touchscreen devices.  Here's how:

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select.

OK, got it!

Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

For full access in an ad-free environment, sign up now for a FREE, 1-day trial.

Already a member? Log in now.

Are you sure you want to delete this highlight?