FROM its inception, the Melbourne administration attracted the attention of
those keen to write its obituary. It was seen to be terminally ill from the
moment of its birth. It was to be dismissed as terminally ill for the next seven
years. After all, the Tories were against it, and that meant that the govern-
ment would always face a hostile majority in the House of Lords. The King
was barely for it. Earl Grey and his family were in theory supportive, but in
fact acted in a manner that was disruptive. By so doing, they allowed the
trusteeship of Whiggery to be disputed. As a result, Melbourne was forced to
rely on the votes of Radicals and Irishmen, skittish creatures with a tendency
to bolt. Over the period 1834-41, Melbourne saw his majority in the House
of Commons steadily evaporating, and, after the election of 1837, it some-
times sank to single figures. When the 1841 election was finally lost, he iron-
ically observed that he 'was sure it would be so for we've always been losing
since 33!' ¹ In these circumstances, it was hard to think that Melbourne would
be long in power. The prospectus was not convincing.

At the beginning of Melbourne's second administration, in May 1835, his
old friend Lord Holland gave him only a modest chance of success, because
,a Ministry with a decided majority in the Lords against it, without the
appearance certainly, and the reality possibly, of any Court Powers and with
'a bare majority in the Commons cannot be sure of commanding success'. ²
Eight months later, the French ambassador thought he could detect an
improvement in the Ministry's condition, ³ but his optimism was not shared
by the Prime Minister. Melbourne himself was almost uniformly gloomy
about the likelihood of staying in power beyond the next Session. In
September 1836, he felt 'no security'. ⁴ The survival of his government was
'perfectly incredible?. ⁵ In April 1840, he thought himself 'exposed to all sorts
of chances and accidents, and he nowhere sees a guarantee for its stability'. ⁶
Dependent on the votes of men he could not much care for, he wondered

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