6 The Two Interwar Recessions Through most of the interwar period, UK unemployment was high: it was high after the recession of 1921, and higher again during and after the Great Depression of 1929-32. I argued previously [ch. 3.1] that if the economy becomes underemployed it tends to stay underemployed. If that is so, the question is not why unemployment stayed high after 1921 or remained higher after 1929, but what caused the breaks at these two dates, checked output and pushed unemployment higher then, and after 1932 brought unemployment down. Section 6.1 below gives an overview of the whole interwar period. Section 6.2 looks at the 1921 recession and the following years. Since (it is argued) the depression of 1929-32 was dominated by events in the United States, section 6.3 is a digression on the US Great Depression. Section 6.4 then looks at the inter- national transmission of that Depression and its manifestation in the United Kingdom; and section 6.5 at the UK recovery after 1932. Conclusions of theoretical interest are stated in section 6.6. Three appendices discuss Friedman and Schwartz ( 1963) Monetary History of the United States, Eichengreen ( 1992) Golden Fetters, and the international transmission of the US Depression. There is also a statistical appendix. 6.1. Overview of the interwar period 6.1.1. Economic events UK developments from 1920 until the outbreak of World War II can be divided into six phases [ fig. 6.1 ]. After the boom of the immediate postwar years came the sharp recession of 1921. Then came partial recovery, followed by six years of what Pigou called the doldrums--moderate growth but not fast enough to make any decisive inroad into unemployment. The Great Depression of 1929-32 then took unemployment to over 15 per cent. From there it declined only slowly and gradually to 11 per cent by 1935 (recovery I), and under rather different impulses to just under 6 per cent by 1939 (recovery II). The continuous high level of unemployment makes the interwar period very different from nineteenth-century fluctuations. The United States had a considerably different experience from the UK, but with broadly the same timing [ fig. 6.2 ]. It experienced much more expansion and lower unemployment through most of the 1920s; a much deeper depression in 1929-33; then, despite renewed growth, unemployment significantly higher than in the UK throughout the 1930s. Some other countries underwent the same recessionary phases; others suffered less or escaped wholly [ fig. 6.3 ]. In 1921 output fell in the United States, France, -133- |