necessary to reform this structure. This is a difficult and complex task, so we must adopt resolute yet cautious policies, trying to implement them in a guided and orderly way and to advance the reform as steadily as possible. In this period of transition from the old structure to the new, we should make special efforts to ensure that work is coordinated and conflicts are avoided. In pursuing reform, we must stress experimentation, encourage exploration, seek practical interim methods and measures and advance one step at a time. . . .
The immediate objective for the reform of the political structure is limited. However, when that objective is achieved, it will lay a sound foundation for socialist democracy and for the realization of our long-range objective. . . .
Four Major Crises China Will Face and Countermeasures
Source: Liaowang Overseas Edition (Outlook Weekly) ( Hong Kong), no. 10 ( March 6, 1989): 7-8, and no. 11 (March 13): 12-15; FBIS, April 19, pp. 28-34.
After analyzing and studying population, natural resources, environment, grain, and other major factors which limit China's long-term development as components of productive forces, the National Situation Analysis and Research Group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences maintains that China will face serious crises in four areas:
Population Crisis: By the Year 2000 China's Population May
Top the 1.3 Billion Mark, the Latent Unemployed Population
in the Countryside Will Exceed 300 Million, and the Population
Will Be Aging Fast
The first crisis China faces is that of a continuously expanding and aging population and unemployment. It is forecast that China's population will top 1.1 billion in 1990 and 1.3 billion by 2000, of which about 1 billion will be in the countryside.