graduate students and improvements in economic status, we may expect a substantial rise merely because college enrollments will be roughly 50 per cent higher in the years from 1958 to 1970 than in 1956 to 1958. Hence we may assume that the annual flow of Ph.D.s from 1958 to 1970 would be about 13,000. This figure is somewhat inflated because the lag in the rise of graduate numbers following the increase of undergraduates is not considered. But this is a low estimate, because we do not allow adequately for any upward trend vis-à-vis total college enrollment. Hence I estimate the flow of Ph.D.s of at least 200,000 from 1954 to 1970. The figure may be substantially higher. Only one-half of these will be available for teaching, and even this figure must be substantially reduced, since many of the future Ph.D.s are already in the teaching profession. But the further we look ahead, the greater is the proportion of new Ph.D.s who are a net addition to the teaching force. One report gives the estimates shown in Table 53-22.
Estimated Full-Time University, College, and Junior College Teachers
|New teachers needed|
6 per cent
|Total, 1958-59 to|
|Source: NEA Research Report, Teacher Supply and Demand in Universities, Colleges, and Junior Colleges, 1957-58, p.50.|
In conclusion, faculty salaries are too low given the numbers and quality needed. A serious relative deterioration of faculty pay still prevails. A comparison of income trends by rank simplifies the problem excessively. We also have to consider trends in numbers by ranks, average age, and training, increases in fringe benefits, and outside work. And we stress the relation of economies, to which faculty can contribute, to the mobilization of resources needed to finance the rise of pay.