Dangerous Peace: New Rivalry in World Politics

. . . only a few years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US once again is faced with a self-defined rival to its sole superpower status. Thus, for all the fashionable talk of multipolarity, the US faces a new bipolar relationship not unlike that between the US and the Soviet Union after World War II. ²¹

Consequently, this problematic relationship should be managed with the same kind of consistency that the previous American presidents paid to US-Soviet relations. Furthermore, the new world powers, like the European Union, should be more assertive in their policies. The European Union has its problems in becoming a strong international player. If one wants to have a role in international trade relations, it cannot be done without a strengthened role in political and strategic relations.

One of the problems in managing relations with China results from the fact that it is not a friend, but not a foe either, to the US or to the European Union.

There is nothing in China's recent history that threatens America enough to engage in a costly containment strategy against China. However, China is destined to become a superpower, and at the same time, Russia is doomed to lose the same status. In the past a hegemonic war has resulted from this kind of fundamental strategic shift in power relations. However, a major war can be avoided. ²²

Much is at stake and will depend on the skills and visions of the leaders of the three key actors: China, the European Union and the United States. Russia's role is to join one of them; if isolated, it is too weak to challenge the change anyway. The United States and the European Union have to help China to choose the right road.

-145-