Immigration in America's Future: Social Science Findings and the Policy Debate

By David M. Heer | Go to book overview

to the United States will always be proportionately less than the number of immigrants arriving.

If the process of economic development in the less-developed nations does not substantially reduce the propensities to immigrate to the United States within the next thirty years, the following three scenarios for the future are possible. First, there would be no change in the laws concerning legal immigration, but draconian measures would be used successfully to curb illegal immigration. Accordingly, total net immigration to the United States, both legal and illegal, would remain at its current level. Second, the United States would not change either its immigration laws or the ways in which it attempted to enforce these laws. As a consequence, the net flow of undocumented immigrants to the United States would rise far above its current level. Third, the United States would change its immigration laws so that a much higher proportion of the persons who most want to immigrate to the United States could do so legally. In this case the net flow of illegal immigration would perhaps decline to a very low level, and total net immigration might be smaller than in the second scenario.


Notes
1.
The latest projection is found in United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, World Population Prospects, the 1992 Revision ( New York: United Nations, 1993).
2.
See Warren S. Thompson, Population and Peace in the Pacific ( Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1946), pp. 22-35; C. P. Blacker, "Stages in Population Growth," Eugenics Review, Vol. 39, No. 3 ( October 1947), pp. 88-102; Kingsley Davis , Human Society ( New York: Macmillan, 1949), pp. 603-608; and Frank W. Notestein , "The Economics of Population and Food Supplies," in Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference of Agricultural Economists ( London: Oxford University Press, 1953), pp. 15-31.
3.
David M. Heer, Society and Population, 2d ed. (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1975), pp. 94-96.
4.
Joseph J. Spengler, "Values and Fertility Analysis," Demography, Vol. 3, No. 1 ( 1966), pp. 109-130.
5.
Everett S. Lee, "A Theory of Migration," Demography, Vol. 3, No. 1 ( 1966), pp. 47-57.
6.
For an excellent example of such research, see Parker Frisbie, "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States: A Longitudinal Analysis," International Migration Review Vol. 9, No. 1 ( 1975), pp. 3-13.
7.
World Bank, World Development Report 1993 ( New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 296-297.
8.
John S. MacDonald and Leatrice D. MacDonald, "Chain Migration, Ethnic Neighborhood Formation, and Social Networks," Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, Vol. 52, No. 1 ( January 1964), pp. 82-97.

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Immigration in America's Future: Social Science Findings and the Policy Debate
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • 1 - Overview 1
  • Notes 5
  • 2 - The Volume and Character of Future Immigration: The Values at Stake 7
  • 3 - The Influence of Social Science Findings 17
  • Notes 25
  • 4 - The History of U.S. Immigration Law 27
  • Notes 71
  • 5 - Patterns of Immigration to and from the United States 77
  • Notes 133
  • 6 - Determinants of Immigration 137
  • Notes 159
  • 7 - Enforcement of Immigration Law 161
  • Notes 179
  • 8 - The Impact of Immigration 183
  • Notes 206
  • 9 - Proposals for Change in U.S. Immigration Law 209
  • Notes 222
  • Bibliography 225
  • About the Book and Author 237
  • Index 238
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