Change, and Long Waves
|1.||The Kitchin, or inventory, cycle (3-5 years)|
|2.||The Juglar, or investment, cycle (7-11 years)|
|3.||The Kuznets, or building, cycle (15-25 years)|
|4.||The Kondratieff, or long wave (45-60 years)|
Van Ewijk ( 1982), using spectral analysis, has shown convincingly that "the long wave is not a general characteristic of real economic growth in industrialized countries," although there may be some supporting statistical evidence for the Kuznets cycle, particularly in the United States.
Adelman in the 1960s ( 1954, 1965) had already reached a rather similar conclusion, but also demonstrated that "in a simulation of the ordinary business cycles of the U.S. economy by a randomly shocked Klein-Goldberger model, long swings were generated which corresponded in all important respects to the extended waves observed in the U.S. economy."
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Publication information: Book title: Advances in Input-Output Analysis:Technology, Planning, and Development. Contributors: William Peterson - Editor. Publisher: Oxford US. Place of publication: New York. Publication year: 1991. Page number: 137.