1I would like to thank Malcolm Feeley, George Fisher, Bill Mayton, Craig Miller, Howard Miller, Ronald Wright, and Frank Zimring for advice on this paper; Joveme Trotter (Emory 1998) for superb research assistance, and Holliday Osborne
for tracking down state budget information.
2U.S. Sentencing Commission, Supplementary Report on the Initial Sentencing
Guidelines and Policy Statements, June 18, 1987, p. 60; U.S. Sentencing Commission, 1995 Annual Report ( Washington, D.C., 1996), microfiche, p. 58;
Michael Tonry, "Salvaging the Sentencing Guidelines in Seven Easy Steps", in Federal Sentencing
Reporter, Vol. 4, No. 6, May/June 1992, p. 355; U.S. Sentencing Commission, Sentencing Options under the Guidelines, staff discussion paper ( Washington, D.C., 1996), p. 10 (noting decrease in use of "simple probation" from 33% in 1984 to 14
in 1995).
3Increases in federal sentences are noted in U.S. Sentencing Commission, 1995
Annual Report; U.S. Sentencing Commission, The Federal Sentencing Guidelines: A
Report on the Operation of the Guidelines System and Short-Term Impacts on Disparity in
Sentencing, Use of Incarceration, and Prosecutorial Discretion and Plea Bargaining, December 1991, pp. 60-61. Drug sentences in particular took a sharp upturn, rising
in the federal system from an average of 62 months in 1986 to 86 months in 1991.
U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Drugs and Crime Facts, 1994 ( Washington, D.C., 1995), p. 18. Increases in state
prison sentences for felonies are noted in U.S. Department of Justice, Office of
Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, State Court Sentencing of Convicted
Felons, 1992, by
Patrick A. Langan and
Robyn L. Cohen ( Washington, D.C., 1996),
p. 2.
4.U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice
Statistics, Federal Criminal Case Processing, 1982-93 with Preliminary Data for 1994 ( Washington, D.C., 1996), p. 17, table 17.
5. Barbara S. Vincent and
Paul J. Hofer, "The Consequences of Mandatory
Minimum Prison Terms: A Summary of Recent Findings", in Federal Sentencing
Reporter, Vol. 7, No. 1, JulyAugust 1994, p. 33; Eric Simon, "The Impact of DrugSentencing on the Federal Prison Population", in Federal Sentencing Reporter, Vol. 6,
No. 1, July/August 1993, p. 29; Joe B. Brown, "The Need to Educate Congress about
Mandatory-Sentences", in Federal Sentencing Reporter, Vol. 8, No. 1, July/August 1995, p. 18; Douglas C. McDonald and
Kenneth E. Carlson, "Why Did Racial/Ethnic
Sentencing Differences in Federal District Courts Grow Larger under the
Guidelines?" in Federal Sentencing Reporter, Vol. 6, No. 4, January/February 1994,
p. 223; U.S. Sentencing Commission, Mandatory Minimum Penalties in the Federal
Criminal Justice System: A Special Report to the Congress ( Washington D.C., 1991). See
also U.S. Sentencing Commission, USSC Report on 3 Strikes," in Federal Sentencing
Reporter, Vol. 7, No. 2, SeptemberOctober 1994, p. 81; Franklin E. Zimring, "Tough
Crime Laws Are False Promises", in Federal Sentencing Reporter, Vol. 7, No. 2, September/October 1994, p. 61.
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