10. Modelski and
Morgan ( 1985) argue along similar lines,
but center their criticism of the stability of deterrence on the global
cycle (for details, see pp. 49-50). 11. John Mueller ( 1989) brings vividly to attention an
oversight present in most war theories: the conditions for war are
effectively and fully elaborated but those for peace are simply noted. Organski and
Kugler ( 1980), for example, carefully define conditions
for war under parity and transition, but fail to elaborate with equal
precision the reasons for peace under preponderance. The reverse
tendency, however, is present in the treatment of nuclear deterrence. Intriligator and
Brito ( 1989) elaborate extensively the conditions for
peace under deterrence, but fail to label the conditions their model
suggests will lead to nuclear war. Indeed, their model suggests that
since 1945, during transitions from the cone of war to compellence or
from compellence to mutual deterrence, a nuclear war would be waged.
The lack of a nuclear war under such conditions is -- after the fact --
dismissed or attributed to luck. This emphasis on the partial outcome
one wishes to explore is prevalent. 12. Other reasons for nations to oppose nuclear proliferation
might exist. Bueno de Mesquita and
Riker ( 1982) and Wu ( 1990) point
out that proliferation would reduce the bargaining power of a nation
possessing nuclear weapons versus a prospective nuclear power. 14. This argument is used by Intriligator and
Brito ( 1987) to
oppose the development of defensive missile systems that could force
nuclear nations out of stable Mutual Assured Destruction and into
regions of uncertain deterrence (Figure 1). 15.
Decision-making approaches would account for such
phenomena if it can be proven that dramatically different preferences
are held by authoritarian, totalitarian, and democratic populations and
For specific information, consult Claudio Cioffi- Revilla
',s Long Range Analysis of War (LORANOW) Project,
University of Colorado at Boulder.
Paul Diehl ( 1991) bibliographic review of the COW
project provides an excellent overview of data expansions.
Recently, many of these data collections have been
extended under the auspices of the Merriam Laboratory for Analytical
Political Research as part of the Data Development for International
Relations project. Important extensions include Ted Robert Gurr, National Capabilities; Jack Levy, Great Power Wars; Manus Midlarsky
, Major-Minor Powers Wars; John Wilkenfeld, International
Crisis Behavior; Frederick Parson, Interventions; Philip Schaefer,
Paul Diehl, Territorial Change Coding Manual; and Randolph Siverson with Harvey Starr, Data on International Borders,
1816-1965. The quantitative analysis of international events now offers
a number of perspectives: Rudolph Rummel Dimensionality of Nations
(DON); Charles McClelland World Events Interaction Survey (WEIS), Edward Azar Conflict and Peace Databank (COPDAT), Charles Herman's Comparative Research on the Events of Nations (CREON), Charles Taylor and
David Jodice World Handbook of Political and
Social Indicators, and Ernst Haas,
Joseph Nye, and
Robert Butterworth's SHERFACTS on conflict management. These now
provide a very extensive cross-temporal and cross-national basis for
empirical research. The data sets are available to the community
through the ICPSR at the University of Michigan. In addition,
interested readers can obtain current issues of the DDIR-Update that
reports on data developments for international relations.
Perhaps Kautilya, who wrote his classic Arthasastra
sometime between 321-296 B.C., deserves equal credit with Thucydides. This work parallels in many respects the critical elements
of Thucydides' postulates on war. However, I know of no evidence
that the Western thinkers who laid the foundations of contemporary war
theory, such as Machiavelli, Hobbes, or Morgenthau, discovered the
writings of Kautilya.
20. The development of physics is outlined in a clear and
brilliant manner by Hawking ( 1988). 21.
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Foreign Affairs, and more recently The Journal of Conflict Resolution.
This change coincides with the appearance of The
Journal of Conflict Resolution.
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Bueno de Bruce Mesquita, and
David Lalman. 1986. "Reason and
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Bueno de Bruce Mesquita, and
David Lalman. 1988. "Empirical
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Bueno de Bruce Mesquita, and
David Lalman. 1992. War and Reason. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Questia, a part of Gale, Cengage Learning. www.questia.com
Book title: Political Science:The State of the Discipline II.
Contributors: Ada W. Finifter - Author.
Publisher: American Political Science Association.
Place of publication: Washington, DC.
Publication year: 1993.
Page number: 505.
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