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The Collapse of the Democratic Presidential Majority: Realignment, Dealignment, and Electoral Change from Franklin Roosevelt to Bill Clinton

By: David G. Lawrence | Book details

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Appendix 5

Manipulating Predicted Loyalty: Perceived Distance as Measure of Issues
All Democrats and Republicans
Democratic Values/Republican Values/Democratic Values/Republican Values/
DemocraticDemocraticRepublicanRepublican
YearCoefficientsaCoefficientsbCoefficientscCoefficientsa
196846.457.977.382.4
197250.888.985.894.3
197658.364.167.487.6
198057.161.670.276.1
198471.976.791.090.5
198884.182.688.787.3

Core Constituencies: Liberal Democrats and Conservative Republicansd
ConservativeConservative
Liberal DemocraticRepublican Values/Liberal DemocraticRepublican Values/
Values/DemocraticDemocraticValues/RepublicanRepublican
YearCoefficientsaCoefficientsbCoefficientscCoefficientsa
196857.162.982.684.1
197274.296.090.596.2
197659.566.374.981.6
198057.959.977.986.4
198487.288.396.495.5
198892.792.993.293.9
Notes: a. Entries are predicted loyalty for mean Democratic and Republican identifiers derived from probit
analyses of each partisan group separately.
b. Column two uses coefficients for Democrats but substitutes values on independent variables of
the mean Republican.
c. Column three uses values on independent variables of Democrats but coefficients for
Republicans.
d. Mean scores are for liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans.

-193-

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