Forecasting Business Cycles

Table of contents

• Title Page iii
• Acknowledgment vii
• Contents ix
• Charts xi
• Tables xiii
• Forecasting Business Cycles Introduction 1
• Part One the Problem of Forecasting Business Cycles 5
• Chapter I the Future Indicated by the Past 7
• Chapter II is There a Bed-Rock to Curtailment? 20
• Chapter III a Time-Table of Recovery 32
• Chapter IV Bank Credit and Business Recovery 48
• Chapter V Business in Retrospect and Prospect (written, December, 1930) 68
• Part Two Records of Business Since 1875 75
• Chapter VI Point of View and Survey of 1865-74 77
• Chapter VII Records of Business: Recurrent Currency Difficulties, 1875-1889 88
• Chapter VIII Records of Business: Threat to Gold Standard; Free Silver Defeated, 1890-1904 108
• Crapter IX Records of Business: Gold Standard; Rising Prices; World War; Inflation, 1905-1919 128
• Chapter X Records of Business: Collapse of War Price Structure; Reconstruction; Redistribution of World's Gold, 1920-1930 149
• Chapter XI Annual Indexes of the Physical Volume of Production, 1860-1930 169
• Chapter XII Adjusted Annual Indexes of the Physical Volume of Production 178
• Chapter XIII Production, Prices, and Aggregate Values of Crops 187
• Part Three the Analysis of the Data 195
• Chapter XIV the Problems of Probability Analysis 197
• Chapter XV a Classification of Theories of Business Fluctuations 210
• Chapter XVI Statistics and Economic Theory 243
• Chapter XVII Conclusion 283
• Index 285

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