Forecasting Business Conditions

By Charles O. Hardy; Garfield V. Cox | Go to book overview
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Composite indexes of the physical volume of production are of quite recent origin. In 1913 W. E. Leonard published an index of the annual volume of production in the extractive industries, but its computation was not continued.1 In 1919 was compiled an index of the annual volume of raw materials produced in the United States from 1913 to 1918. This work was done under the direction of W. C. Mitchell by the Price Section of the Division of Planning and Research of the War Industries Board.2 This index, however, was only an incidental by- product of a comprehensive study of prices and no attempt was made to maintain it currently. In 1920, however, studies were undertaken independently of each other by Edmund E. Day, Carl Snyder, and Walter W. Stewart, in attempts to assemble the statistical series and determine the technique necessary to the development of indexes of current production.3 These and other similar studies paved the

Leonard, W. E., "An Index of Changes in Extractive Industries," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1913, Vol. 9, pp. 539-550
Mitchell, W. C., History of Prices During the War, Summary (War Industries Board, Bulletin No. 1), pp. 44-46.
Day, E. E., "An Index of the Physical Volume of Production," Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 2, 1920, pp. 246-259, 287-299, 309-337 (Day and Persons), 361-367, and Vol. 3, 1921, pp. 19-23; Stewart, W. W.. "An Index Number of Production," American Economic Review, Vol. 11, 1921, pp. 57-70; Snyder, Carl, ibid., pp. 70-74.


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Forecasting Business Conditions


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