Growth, Debt, and Politics: Economic Adjustment and the Political Performance of Developing Countries

By Lewis W. Snider | Go to book overview

Notes
1.
This includes Japan's postwar economic recovery strategy that extended into the 1950s.
2.
Although the timing of the initiation of primary import-substitution industrialization in Latin America began during the Depression years of the 1930s in a less liberal trade environment, the initial colonial resources now pattern bears a substantial resemblance to East Asia. In both regions it involved the exportation of mainly land-based raw materials (generally minerals and tropical cash crops) in exchange for mainly industrial consumer goods. In both regions the policy focused on reallocating the proceeds from traditional natural resource-based exports to finance new nondurable consumer goods types of import-substituting industries. See Barkey ( 1990: 5-6) and Ranis ( 1990: 212). At approximately the same time (during the late 1950s and early 1960s), both Latin American and East Asian countries altered their industrialization strategies away from primary import-substitution industrialization. The difference was that the East Asian countries shifted toward an outward-oriented strategy of industrialization that concentrated on production for foreign markets. By contrast, the Latin American states continued on an inward-oriented trajectory proceeding to a second state of import-substitution industrialization, of "vertical" or secondary import-substitution industrialization.
3.
Additionally, throughout most of the 1980s the two regions faced an almost identical external environment. Yet East Asian GDP grew at an average of 5.8 percent between 1981 and 1985, while Latin America experienced a negative growth rate of 0.4 percent ( Macomber 1987: 470-71).
4.
In developing countries pursuing an infant-industry/import-substitution industrialization policy, the cornerstone of government policy is usually the monopoly of the management of the foreign exchange reserves by political power, i.e., by the prohibition of private international financial transactions in order to isolate domestic interest rates from international interest rates. This enables the government to pursue a low interest rate policy combined with the printing of money. See Ranis and Mahmood ( 1992: 22).
5.
These practices are in contrast to the normal directional neutrality of macroeconomic policies in advanced industrialized countries where, under the Federal Reserve System for example, monetary authorities control only the aggregate levels of new bank lending, leaving the market, i.e., the banks and money markets, to determine the precise direction of individual allocations. See Ranis and Mahmood ( 1992: 20, fn. 3).
6.
The "under-the-table"/'on-the-table" metaphor was coined by Ranis ( 1990).
8.
FPT can be thought of as an aggregate trade "weight" represented by
FPTa=[(E1txWPI1t)+(E2txWPI2t)
+(E3txWPI3t)+(EntxWPInt)]/n

-181-

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