part of the military expenditure data series for this Conversion Survey.
Figures reported in table A5 have been calculated by subtracting the value for the specific year (either 1994 or 1995) from the average value between 1985 and 1993. This number is then divided by the higher of the two mentioned values. The resulting figure is multiplied by 100 to express it as a percentage. Index figures are therefore percentage changes between the 1985-1993 average and the later year, with either of the two as the divisor. The change of divisor ensures that the index ranges between +100 percent and -100 percent. Thus, a percentage reduction in a relevant category--for example, military expenditures--is indicated by a positive sign, while a negative value indicates an increase.
Finally, the BIC3D Index is calculated as the simple average of the four indices (or less, depending on data availability). The arithmetic average has been chosen for its simplicity; any other weighting of indices, or a complex statistical procedure such as a factor analysis, would reduce the transparency of the procedure. The index by region is calculated using the same procedure as for the regional data shown in A1 to A4.
The index should be interpreted as a measure of the general reduction or increase in military resource use between the base period--the last years of the Cold War and its immediate aftermath--and a chosen later year. It gives an impression of the quantitative level of resources available and, thus, in need of conversion. The comparison of BIC3D indices for differing end years indicates whether the process of disarmament--or armament, if that was the earlier trend--is continuing or has been reversed.
Additional data, such as on base closures or military research and development, would have been beneficial in measuring more dimensions of conversion but unfortunately, at the present time, such data is not quantifiable on a global scale. The index also fails to reflect the relationship between resources freed and the general size of an economy--it does not directly measure the relative urgency of conversion; additional data from the civilian sector would have been necessary for such an assessment.
Cooper, Julian. 1993. "The Soviet Union and the successor republics: Defence industries coming to terms with disunion." In Wulf, 1993, pp. 87-108.
Institute for Disarmament and Development Studies (IDDS). Arms Control Reporter. Monthly updates. Boston: IDDS.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Military Balance. Annual. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. Annual. Washington, DC: IMF.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI Yearbook. Annual. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA). World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers. Annual. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
World Bank. World Development Report. Annual. New York: Oxford University Press
Wulf, Herbert. 1993. Arms Industry Limited. Oxford: Oxford University Press.