Conference on Business Cycles

By National Bureau Committee for Economic Research | Go to book overview
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Mitchell on What Happens during Business Cycles3
Jacob Marschak14
Reply by Mr. Burns25
A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921-1947 Carl Christ35
1 Econometric Models: General Concepts and Definitions35
2 Prediction: the Reduced Form of a System of Structural Equations43
3 Statistical Estimation Procedures: the Structural Parameters45
4 Statistical Estimation Procedures: the Parameters of the Reduced Form49
5 Klein's Model III50
6 Marshall's Test of Klein's Model III55
7 Revisions of Klein's Equations59
8 Description of Tests Used67
9 Plan of Computations70
10 Results of Computations71
11 Discussion of Results of Computations78
12 Summary and Conclusion87
A Time Series87
B Sources of Data and Construction of Time Series91
C Time Series for 1946-194798
D Choice of Predetermined Variables for Estimation by the Abbreviated Variant of the Limited Information Method103
E Estimation of the Parameters of the Reduced Form104
F Calculated Disturbances for CLI Limited Information Estimates of Equations105
G References105


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