Conference on Business Cycles

By National Bureau Committee for Economic Research | Go to book overview
made to conform simultaneously to the restrictions implied in the form of two, three, ⋯, or all these other structural equations as well. This further increases the efficiency of the estimates, but makes them more difficult to compute.
Appendix F CALCULATED DISTURBANCES FOR CLI LIMITED INFORMATION ESTIMATES OF EQUATIONS
1.0 2.0 3.4 4.0 4.2 5.1 6.2 7.0 9.0 10.0 11.0
1921 .03 .37
1922 2.11 -.26 3.04 37.07 -1.08 .033 -.61 .15 -.010 -.01 -.66
1923 3.93 1.05 1.19 97.88 .09 .019 -.89 .18 -.014 .06 .18
1924 6.38 -.38 .76 -6.20 .28 -.017 .37 .38 .016 .10 -.09
1925 -2.56 .12 2.43 59.97 -.93 -.033 .05 .44 -.004 .18 -.24
1926 -2.60 .73 1.06 34.73 -.41 -.003 .83 .20 -.002 .19 -.25
1927 .56 .25 .65 -18.03 .03 .005 1.54 .19 .010 .06 -.29
1928 -3.41 -.23 -.14 -.15 .59 .009 2.18 .28 .018 .02 -.13
1929 -3.55 1.21 -2.96 10.87 1.54 .003 1.33 -.16 .034 .34 .19
1930 2.45 .64 -3.13 -98.53 1.68 -.016 -.11 -.25 .041 -.75 -.08
1931 7.87 -.53 -2.52 -149.14 2.07 .012 -2.25 -.36 .013 -.28 .76
1932 12.19 -1.18 -2.09 -141.32 1.41 -.028 -3.27 -.47 -.050 -.21 1.38
1933 2.35 -.43 -.83 -20.27 -.12 -.036 -1.24 -.58 -.079 -.01 -.25
1934 -1.11 -.63 -2.83 44.62 -.09 -.043 -.48 -.41 -.019 .044 -.40
1935 -2.36 -.83 -1.29 28.41 -.88 -.022 -.09 -.13 .009 .13 -.17
1936 -5.34 .53 .66 42.52 -1.40 .006 .47 -.04 .019 -.007 -.40
1937 1.63 .09 -3.11 9.26 .64 .003 .80 -.07 .039 .02 -.03
1938 8.27 -1.33 -1.58 -108.97 .56 -.004 2.08 .12 .029 -.06 .32
1939 -6.04 -.28 2.38 27.75 -.73 .025 1.01 .21 .006 .30 -.06
1940 -4.85 .49 2.45 12.84 -.76 .002 .34 .38 .010 .17 .20
1941 -17.27 1.49 4.61 1115.82 -1.25 0.36 -2.22 .58 .019 .04 .08
1946 1.48 .71 8.53 -38.12 -2.26 -.033 -1.55 -.46 -.050 .15 -.33
1947 1.70 -1.36 -7.24 60.24 1.25 .013 1.88 -.16 -.032 -.22 -.10
1948 -8.37 1.19 -7.82 90.56 .77 .17 6.88 .03 .011 -.19 .07

Appendix G REFERENCES
1. Anderson, T. W., and H. Rubin, Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Equation in a Complete System of Stochastic Equations, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 20 ( 1949), pp. 46-63, and The Asymptotic Properties of Estimates of the Parameters of a Single Equation in a Complete System of Stochastic Equations, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 21 ( 1950), pp. 570-82.
2. Bronfenbrenner, J., 'Extent of Least Squares Bias in Estimating a Single Stochastic Equation in a Complete System', Cowles Commission Discussion Paper (unpublished). 1949.
3. Eisenhart, C., M. Hastay and W. A. Willis (editors), Techniques of Statistical Analysis ( McGraw-Hill, 1947), Ch. 2.

-105-

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