Since the periodicity of critical realignments has been remarkably pre-
cise, the theory presented in the previous chapters can be subjected to
something of a test in relatively short order. The critical elections that
have marked the realigning turning points have occurred exactly every
thirty-six years since 1860: in 1896, 1932, and if the definition asserted
in this book is correct, in 1968. If that remarkable consistency should
continue, we can expect another realigning election in 2004.

Of course, history is not actually as neat as the categories historians
and social analysts create to understand it. Realignments reach critical
proportions over relatively brief periods of time, spanning two or three
elections, like 1896-1900, 1928-1936, or 1964-1972. The elections be-
tween these periods do not offer stasis, either. Rather, they exhibit
relative electoral stability marked by secular realignment. If the peri-
odic nature of the process holds, we are on the eve of yet another critical
realignment.

This epilogue discusses the coming election of 2000 as a laboratory
for the theory of realignment and party change presented in this book.

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