G. R. Patterson
Oregon Social Learning Center

A major dilemma confronting decision makers concerns the problem of what
can be done about the recent increases in juvenile violence (Reiss & Roth,
1993). In England and Wales, there were massive increases in rates of juvenile
violence that began around 1987 and persisted at least through 1993 (James,
1995). What model accounts for these changes in international rates? Even
more intriguing is the fact that in England and Wales, during the explosion
in violence beginning in 1987, the rates for general juvenile offending were
falling. We obviously require models that explain why societal rates of ju-
venile delinquency change and perhaps a different model to account for
changes in societal rates of juvenile violence.

The traditional strain and social control models of juvenile delinquency
do not explain these phenomena, nor do they account for the vexing problem
of Black and White differences in rates of delinquency or differences in
aggregated rates of violence (Reiss & Roth, 1993). I propose that an early-
onset model that successfully accounts for individual differences in risk for
early arrest and chronic offending (Patterson, Crosby, & Vuchinich, 1992;
Patterson, Forgatch, Yoerger, & Stoolmiller, 1998; Patterson & Yoerger,
1997) may be extended to serve as a useful alternative in accounting for
variations in societal rates of juvenile offending.

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