The purpose of this chapter is to discuss two new methods for predicting sys-
tematically the outcome of court cases. These methods are simple and easy to
use. They also have the advantage over more traditional prediction methods of
providing causal insights into why the cases are decided the way they are. These
prediction methods could be used to predict outcomes in situations that do not
necessarily involve predicting how court cases are decided, but this chapter uses
court cases for illustrative purposes. ¹

The chapter is organized in terms of (1) staircase prediction, which applies
when two key predictive variables are used; and (2) percentaging, which espe-
cially applies when there are more than two key predictive variables. The ex-
amples mainly relate to due process, equal protection, and the First Amendment.

There are eight steps involved in staircase prediction.

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