man" but also an economist, technocrat, and pragmatist; he has
conducted a policy showing more independence of Moscow than
have the other leaders in Central Asia. For that very reason, his
policies have, to a lesser degree, reflected the zigzags of policy
and economics in Russia. Karimov has determined his economic
program so as to take into account the economic structure,
resource potential as well as the ethnic and demographic
peculiarities and traditions in Uzbekistan. The remaining countries
in the region will apparently continue to muddle through; until the
end of this century, however, they appear to have very little
chance of restoring stability and growth to their economies.

The impact of the second fundamental factor--the interaction of
the three big powers--will depend on changes in those same states.
One determinant is the political forces that come to power in
Russia after the presidential elections of 16 June 1996. Another is
the constellation of power in post-Deng China and whether it will
become more aggressive and militaristic. And the final determinant
is the foreign policy of the United States: Will it become more
isolationist, or will it retain its global commitments so as to protect
its own geostrategic interests and leadership in world affairs? For
the present, at least, all three countries are interested in
maintaining the status quo in Central Asia. How their interests
converge or conflict in the future is quite impossible to predict.

To be sure, one must not ignore the impact of other destabi-
lizing factors--such as the probable activization of radical Islamic
movements, the growth of their political ambitions, the inter-ethnic
and clan tensions, and the possibility of spontaneous conflicts over
the distribution of land and water. Nevertheless, all these are
secondary factors, not primary determinants of stability in the
region. If the economy regains its stability and growth, if the
"Great Game" does not escalate into direct confrontation, peace
and order in the region will be preserved. In the contrary case,
Christiane Amanpoure of CNN will very likely be reporting from
the battlefront in Central Asia rather than the former Yugoslavia.

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