SAM COLE
JAY GERSHUNY
IAN MILES

This article looks at 16 recent studies of global futures and
examines their conclusions within a sociopolitical framework.^**
Three idealised worldviews -- conservative, reformist, radical --
are constructed from this framework; they are then married with a
classification based upon the two parameters of high growth -- low
growth and equality-inequality. This allows for the concise
mapping op existing scenarios and, by the elucidation of the major
differences in sociopolitical forecasts, provides a simple but
effective technique for comparative analysis. Two quality-of-life
issues, the future of work, and of political development and
change, are used as concrete examples of how the method can be used
to create a series of scenarios which cover the whole
sociopolitical spectrum of alternative futures.

In the last few years, as readers of Futures will be well aware, a
number of long-term forecasts of possibilities for global economic
growth have caught the attention of the media and the public. Most
of these have called for dramatic new thinking about the
possibilities for the long-term future and for a reorientation of
present trends in world development. However, their authors
disagree both over proposals and over prospects.

By comparing the content and prescriptions of the major
studies, the assumptions upon which they are based can be set out,
and the comparison between these assumptions and the different
methods employed gives some guidance for our own thinking about the
future. Several of these futures studies received much publicity,
some have achieved notoriety, and some are believed to have an
influence on government policies. Table 1 summarises these
forecasts.

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