Politics ( 1985 and 1991), and in a chapter of Allan Hertzke and Ronald Peter
's The Atomistic Congress ( 1992). A more detailed discussion of
the application of the surge-and-decline theory to state legislative elec-
tions (summarized briefly in chapter 9) was published in the American
Political Science Review ( 1986). Part of the analysis of how the revised
theory of surge and decline accounts for elections in the 1990s, particu-
larly the 1994 midterm, and what these elections reveal about the revised
theory of surge and decline appeared in the Journal of Politics ( 1997). The
analysis is presented in full in the new chapter 10 of this edition. I appre-
ciate the advice of the editors and reviewers associated with these early
reports of this research. With this new edition, I have also updated, re-
vised, or extended nearly all of the original analyses.

This book was written over several years spent on the political science
faculties of the University of Georgia and Louisiana State University. I owe
thanks to my colleagues while on the faculty at the University of Georgia,
in the Department of Political Science (especially Bob Grafstein, Chuck
Bullock, Jerry Legge, Tom Lauth, and John Alford) and at the Institute for
Behavioral Research (especially Doc Owens and Abe Tesser), for their sup-
port and advice over the years. I also thank a number of my colleagues in
the Department of Political Science at Louisiana State University for their
encouragement and advice (especially Ron Weber, Jim Garand, and Gene
Wittkopf). Several research assistants and other graduate students have
also contributed to this research. I have been especially fortunate to have
had Darren Davis and Bill Blair work on this project. Each devoted long
days to a good bit of the data collection and computer analysis necessary to
completed this book. Mike Barr, Mark Baldwin, Steve Hanna, Steve
Procopio, Phil Ardoin, and Chad Long at LSU and Jean Kingston, Sae-jong
Kim, and Kevin Lasher at the University of Georgia also provided valuable
assistance on various parts of this project. The final preparation of the man-
uscript for the publication of the first edition was completed during my
time as a program officer in the Political Science Program of the National
Science Foundation. I would like to thank the NSF and my colleague Frank
Scioli for making it possible to bring the project to completion.

I also want to thank Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and the
Republican National Committee for sparking my interest in the puzzle of
midterm elections. In the summer of 1981, the RNC, at the behest of
Representative Gingrich, hired me to conduct a research project address-
ing the question of how a president should campaign for his party in the
first midterm of a realignment. As a historian, Gingrich thought that the
question could best be answered by examining the 1934 midterm cam-
paign, the first midterm in the New Deal realignment and the only
midterm since the Civil War in which the president's party actually gained
seats. The product of this research was a paper for the RNC titled "The1934 Midterm Congressional Elections: Leadership Approaches toward
term Elections in Periods of Partisan Realignment."

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