M. King Hubbert (1903–89) was an American geophysicist who made important
contributions to understanding fluid flow and the strength and behavior of rock
bodies. Hubbert was at the Shell research lab in Houston when he made his orig-
inal estimates of future oil production; he continued the work at the U.S. Geo-
logical Survey.

will put less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The bad news is that
my pickup truck has a 25-gallon tank.

The experts are making their 2004–8 predictions by building on
Hubbert's pioneering work. Hubbert made his 1956 prediction at a
meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in San Antonio, where
he predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.
He said later that the Shell Oil head office was on the phone right
down to the last five minutes before the talk, asking Hubbert to with-
draw his prediction. Hubbert had an exceedingly combative personal-
ity, and he went through with his announcement.

I went to work in 1958 at the Shell research lab in Houston,
where Hubbert was the star of the show. He had extensive scientific
accomplishments in addition to his oil prediction. His belligerence
during technical arguments gave rise to a saying around the lab, “That

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