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(2) Indexes of the Physical Volume of Trade or
of Production 		315
(3) Indexes of "General Business Conditions" 320
(4) Forecasting Sequences 324
3. What the Indexes of Business Conditions Show about Business Cycles 326
(1) The "Saw-Tooth" Contour of the Business In-
dexes 		329
(2) Month-to-Month Changes 330
(3) On Identifying Business Cycles by the Use of
the Business Indexes 		334
(4) Time Relationships Among the Business Indexes 336
(5) Duration of Periods of Expansion and Contrac-
tion 		337
(6) The Duration of Business Cycles 339
(7) The Amplitude of Business Cycles 343
(8) The Distinctive Character of Each Business
Cycle 		354
VII. The Need of Combining Theory, Statistics and History 357
CHAPTER IV. THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF BUSINESS ANNALS
I. The National Bureau's Collection of Business Annals 361
II. The Trustworthiness of the Annals 363
1. Sources and Methods of Compilation 363
2. A Comparison of Business Annals and Business Indexes 365
III. The Cyclical Character of Business Fluctuations 376
1. The "Normal State of Trade" a Figment 376
2. Use of the Term "Cycles" 377
3. The Phases of Business Cycles 378
4. "Crises" and "Recessions" 378
5. "Prosperity" and "Depression" 381
6. The Uniformity and Variability of Business Cycles 382
IV. The Duration of Business Cycles 383
1. Current Estimates of Average Length 383
2. Measurements Based upon the Annals 386
3. Frequency Distributions of the Measurements Based
upon the Annals 		391
4. The Relative Duration of Prosperity and Depression 407

-xvii-

Questia, a part of Gale, Cengage Learning. www.questia.com

Publication Information: Book Title: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. Contributors: Wesley C. Mitchell - author. Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research. Place of Publication: New York. Publication Year: 1954. Page Number: xvii.
    
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