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ADDENDA

Work upon business cycles is progressing so rapidly in so many
quarters that a manuscript falls somewhat behind date while it is
passing through the press. As partial remedy, I add notes on a few
developments of which I have learned too late for mention in the
proper place. Before the volume reaches its first readers, doubtless
I shall be wishing that I might supplement these addenda. Not all
the omissions are items of recent date. Probably the most serious
are matters of which I should have known long ago, but of which I
am still ignorant.

A Russian paper by Albert Wainstein on Harvests, Meteorological
and Economic Cycles, and the Problem of Economic Forecasting
,
Moscow, 1926, reviews the recent literature upon weather theories
of business cycles. Among the contributions noticed is a series of
articles, otherwise unknown to me, published by Axel F. Enstrëm
in the Teknisk Tidskrift (Veckoupplagen), 1916. From the French
synopsis of Wainstein's paper, supplemented by notes which Dr.
Kuznets has made, I judge Enstrëm's investigations to merit more
attention than they have received. By repeated smoothing and
differentiation of numerous time series, most of which run back to
1830, Enstrëm finds non-synchronous cycles of 8 to 9 years in
wholesale prices, crops, production, temperature and sunspots. Be-
tween sunspot and temperature cycles he gets a correlation coefficient
of -.94. He attributes the lagging cycles in economic activities to
the cycles in temperature, and believes that the sequences are suffi-
ciently regular to afford a basis for forecasting economic cycles from
solar observations.

In the new volume of Der moderne Kapitalismus, "Das Wirt-
schaftsleben im Zeitalter des Hochkapitalismus
" ( Munich and Leip-
zig, 1927), Professor Werner Sombart gives a fresh exposition of his
theory of business cycles, showing the relation between the factor
which he stresses (the different conditions under which organic and
inorganic goods are produced) and other processes.

-475-

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Publication Information: Book Title: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. Contributors: Wesley C. Mitchell - author. Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research. Place of Publication: New York. Publication Year: 1954. Page Number: 475.
    
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