Sixth, Stephen Davis argues in Chapter 4 that there has been a
gradual shift in U.S. policy to a comprehensive antiapartheid policy
by the Bush administration that now includes economic sanctions.
These are limited sanctions. The issue remains how to use them ef-
fectively in the controversy over the terms of the settlement.

Finally, my own chapter demonstrates how the antiapartheid move-
ment has become a major social movement that has facilitated the
implementation of sanctions and progress toward a settlement. This
movement has produced effective sanctions that have helped change
the political balance inside South Africa and moved the conflict into
a negotiation mode. International pressures will need to be applied
judiciously and continuously to produce a just settlement.

As David Baldwin and other political economists have suggested,
international economic measures are replacing military intervention
as means for settling major world conflicts. ¹² This challenges pre-
vious assumptions about national barriers and the use of force. And
it clears the way for a new era of peaceful and just settlement of
human rights violations throughout the world.

The conflicts in South Africa are far from settled, but a major
milestone appears to have been passed: acceptance by the ruling
powers in South Africa that they must adjust to the international
economic pressures being placed on them by granting the majority
population of Africans the rights of democratic participation. The
threat of internal and external upheaval, resulting from the deter-
mination of Africans themselves to have their rights, has been no
less a decisive reason for the acceptance of this goal. And the strug-
gle itself brings continuous pressure on South African rulers to con-
tinue to move toward serious negotiations and make concessions
to the majority.

No one can predict when this conflict will end. Nelson Mandela has
said it will be soon, but an attempt by the far right to seize power
would reverse the progress and could lead to a bloodbath. Even then,
however, the final outcome of rule by the majority of South Africa's
people would only be postponed. A minority cannot continue to dic-
tate for long. We have passed through a period of reverses, and repres-
sion in the world suddenly no longer seems inevitable. Popular
democracy continues to sweep through the world, undermining the
brutality of dictators and ruling elites.

These chapters were originally a research project of the Consor-
tium on Human Rights Development on the impact of sanctions on
South Africa. The contributions of graduate students, especially
Timothy Mozia, critiques by NGO leaders and South Africans of
various persuasions, and the comments of fellow Africanists have
been invaluable over the years in formulating the ideas for this book.

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