For most of the twenty-five years following the Drake well, the Ameri-
can industry, virtually the world's only source of an exportable surplus of
petroleum, had sold by far the larger portion of the output of its refineries
outside the United States. As the first quarter-century of the industry's
history drew to a close there was little reason to assume that demand for
petroleum products would not continue to expand both at home and
abroad. But when oil began moving over the Baku-Batoum railway during
the 1880's, there was a growing realization that the emergence of the Rus-
sian industry posed a threat to the hitherto unchallenged position of the
United States in the world's markets for petroleum.

Initial reactions of American observers both as to the significance and
imminence of this threat were varied. According to the Scientific Ameri-

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