The Outlook for Natural Gas

Article excerpt

In recent months, in response to very tight supplies, prices of natural gas have increased sharply. Working gas in storage is currently at very low levels relative to its seasonal norm because of a colder-than-average winter and a seeming inability of increased gas-well drilling to significantly augment net marketed production. Canada, our major source of imported natural gas, has had little room to expand shipments to the United States, and our limited capacity to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) effectively restricts our access to the world's abundant supplies of gas.

Our inability to increase imports to close a modest gap between North American demand and production (a gap we can almost always close in oil) is largely responsible for the marked rise in natural gas prices over the past year. Such price pressures are not evident elsewhere. Competitive crude oil prices, after wide gyrations related to the war in Iraq, are now only slightly elevated from a year ago, and where spot markets for natural gas exist, such as in Great Britain, prices exhibit little change from a year ago. In the United States, rising demand for natural gas, especially as a clean-burning source of electric power, is pressing against a supply essentially restricted to North American production.

Given the current infrastructure, the U.S. market for natural gas is mainly regional, is characterized by relatively longer-term contracts, and is still regulated, but less so than in the past. As a result, residential and commercial prices of natural gas respond sluggishly to movements in the spot price. Thus, to the extent that natural gas consumption must adjust to limited supplies, most of the reduction must come from the industrial sector and, to a lesser extent, utilities.

Yesterday [June 9, 20031 the price of gas for delivery in July closed at $6.31 per million Btu [British Thermal Unit]. That contract sold for as low as $2.55 in July 2000 and for $3.65 a year ago. Futures markets project further price increases through the summer cooling season to the peak of the heating season next January. Indeed, market expectations reflected in option prices imply a 25% probability that the peak price will exceed $7.50 per million Btu.

Today's tight natural gas markets have been a long time in coming, and futures prices suggest that we are not apt to return to earlier periods of relative abundance and low prices any time soon.

It was little more than a half-century ago that drillers seeking valuable crude oil bemoaned the discovery of natural gas. Given the lack of adequate transportation, wells had to be capped or the gas flared. As the economy expanded after World War II, the development of a vast interstate transmission system facilitated widespread consumption of natural gas in our homes and business establishments. On a heat-equivalent basis, natural gas consumption by 1970 had risen to three-fourths of that of oil. But natural gas consumption lagged in the following decade because of competitive incursions from coal and nuclear power. Since 1985, natural gas has gradually increased its share of total energy use and is projected by the Energy Information Administration to gain share over the next quarter century, owing to its status as a clean-burning fuel.

Recent years' dramatic changes in technology are making existing energy reserves stretch further while keeping long-term energy costs lower than they otherwise would have been. Seismic techniques and satellite imaging, which are facilitating the discovery of promising new natural gas reservoirs, have nearly doubled the success rate of new-field wildcat wells in the United States during the past decade. New techniques allow far deeper drilling of promising fields, especially offshore. The newer recovery innovations reportedly have raised the average proportion of gas reserves eventually brought to the surface. Technologies are facilitating Rocky Mountain production of tight-sands gas and coalbed methane. …