GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL FRAUD? Britain's Top Scientist Says Climate Change Is a Greater Threat Than Terrorism. but Why Should We Believe Claims Based Entirely on Bogus Science?

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Byline: MELANIE PHILLIPS

DAFFODILS are on sale in some of our shops unseasonably early. Such evidence that spring seems to be arriving before winter has departed, along with excessively hot summer temperatures, has convinced many that global warming is well under way.

Unease that something funny is happening to the weather is reinforced by constant reports forecasting imminent environmental doom, such as the article in Nature magazine last week claiming that global warming will cause more than one million species to die out over the next 50 years.

In another article in the journal Science, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, claims global warming is an even more serious threat to the world than terrorism.

He maintains that the ten hottest years on record started in 1991, that global warming is causing the icecaps to melt and the seas to rise, and that mankind's activities in producing carbon dioxide have been proved to be the cause.

With all due respect to Sir David's eminence, every one of these claims is utter garbage.

What science actually tells us is that we just don't know whether global warming is happening and, if it is, why.

Much of the research behind this theory is specious, antihistorical and scientifically illiterate. If the world's climate is, indeed, warming up beyond normal patterns, this could be due to natural reasons rather than the actions of mankind.

It is not true that the seas are generally rising. Some are; some aren't.

The claim is based on the atypical North Atlantic, ignoring the seas around Australia where levels have remained pretty static. Indeed, around parts of New Zealand and elsewhere, they are falling.

What's more, there's no correlation between rises in climate temperature and sea levels.

During the Little Ice Age in the Middle Ages, sea levels rose; and between 1900 and 1940, when temperatures rose, sea levels actually dropped.

The icecaps tell a similar story. Some are melting; some are not. The Larsen ice shelf in the Antarctic is breaking up, but most of the Antarctic ice is increasing.

Then there's the claim that the climate is the hottest on record. But this statistical record goes back only a few centuries, if that. Yet there's plenty of other evidence that the climate in Europe was warmer than now by at least two degrees in 1100, when vines grew in Northumberland and farmers settled in Greenland.

Since this was followed by the Little Ice Age, which lasted until 1880, it's hardly surprising - and surely a cause for rejoicing - that since then the climate has warmed up by about 0.6 degrees, well within normal patterns.

As for the presumed villain of the piece, carbon dioxide, this makes up such a tiny fraction of the atmosphere that even if it doubled it would make little difference to the climate.

And, like sea levels, it doesn't correlate with climate change.

Historically, it has increased hundreds of years after the climate has warmed up. Between 1940 and 1975, when industrial activity - which produces carbon dioxide - rose rapidly, the climate actually cooled.

Far from being proved, the claim of manmade global warming is a global fraud.

Instead of being drawn from observable facts, it is based on computer modelling which churns out wholly artificial - and eminently manipulable - visions of the world.

Computers can process only the information fed into them.

This is an inadequate procedure, not least because climate change is affected by billions of variables which are beyond any computer programme.

The sea level 'rise', for instance, omits the full influence of certain crucial natural meteorological changes. And if the disaster scenarios of global warming are fed into the computer as a premise, it is hardly surprising that it will then 'predict' the disappearance of species as a consequence. …