Central Asia and the South Caucasus, a region that has witnessed violent clashes both within and between states in recent decades, is likely to be an area of conflict over the next 10-15 years. The authors identify and evaluate key faultlines in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and how they affect the likelihood and possible evolution of armed conflict in these regions. These faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions, foreign interests, and influence; and the impact of competition over natural resources.
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