Energy Developments in the Middle East

Energy Developments in the Middle East

Energy Developments in the Middle East

Energy Developments in the Middle East

Synopsis

Offers a wealth of information on the current and future importance of Middle East and North African energy resources, detailing political, economic, demographic, and other pressures that could have significant impact on energy supply in the coming decades.

Excerpt

The Iraq War has removed a tyrant, but it has had little impact on the overall importance and security of energy supplies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) except to cut short-term Iraqi production and create new uncertainties about Iraq's midterm export capacity. Similarly, for all the talk of new U.S. energy policies, and energy discoveries in other areas of the world, there have been no meaningful reductions in global and U.S. strategic dependence on Middle Eastern energy exports since the early 1970s, and virtually all projections call for a sharp increase in such dependence between 2004 and 2030.

The MENA region dominates world energy exports today, and will almost certainly do so for decades to come. This is true even if one assumes steady progress in conservation, major improvements in the supply of renewables, and major increases in energy supplies from gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewables. There are many sources of global energy estimates, they use many different models, and their results differ in detail. There are also many major uncertainties as to the size of the oil and gas reserves in a given country, the cost of extracting them, future energy demand, future energy costs, and virtually every other aspect of energy analysis and forecasting.

Most energy experts do, however, agree in broad terms with the data produced by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The forecasts and estimates of the work the EIA and IEA also represent the results of one of the few modeling efforts that receive public review and that . . .

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