The Global Technology Revolution 2020, in-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

The Global Technology Revolution 2020, in-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

The Global Technology Revolution 2020, in-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

The Global Technology Revolution 2020, in-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

Synopsis

In 2020, areas of particular importance for technology trends will include biotechnology, nanotechnology, materials technology, and information technology. This report, the companion document to The Global Technology Revolution 2020, Executive Summary (Silberglitt et al., MG-475-NIC, 2006), assesses in detail a sample of 29 countries with respect to their ability to acquire and implement 16 key technology applications.

Excerpt

Various technologies—including biotechnology, nanotechnology (broadly defined), materials technology, and information technology—have the potential for significant and dominant global impacts by 2020. This report is based on a set of foresights (not predictions or forecasts) into global technology trends in the abovementioned areas and their implications for the world in the year 2020. These foresights were complemented by analysis of data on current and projected S&T capabilities, drivers, and barriers in countries across the globe.

This work was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) to inform its publication of Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project Based on Consultations with Nongovernmental Experts Around the World, December 2004. in addition, funding was provided by the Intelligence Technology Innovation Center (ITIC) and the Department of Energy. It is a follow-on report to rand MR-1307-NIC, The Global Technology Revolution (2001), which was sponsored by the nic to inform its 2000 document, Global Trends 2015. Global Trends 2015 and the 1996 nic document Global Trends 2010 identified key factors that appeared poised to shape the world by 2015 and 2010, respectively.

This report should be of interest to policymakers, intelligence community analysts, technology developers, the public at large, and regional experts interested in potential global technology trends and their broader social effects.

This project was conducted jointly in the Intelligence Policy Center and the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the rand National Security Research Division (NSRD). For further information regarding this report, contact its authors or the Intelligence Policy Center Director, John Parachini. nsrd conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the Defense Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. nsrd is a division of rand, a non-profit corporation chartered in the public interest to conduct policy analysis (see www.rand.org/NSRD/).

For more information on RAND’s Acquisition and Technology Policy Center, contact the Director, Philip Antón. He can be reached by email at atpcdirector@rand.org; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 7798; or by mail at rand Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, ca 90407-2138.

For more information on RAND’s Intelligence Policy Center, contact the Director, John Parachini. He can be reached by email at john_parachini@rand.org; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5579; or by mail at rand Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, va 22202-5050.

More information about rand is available at www.rand.org.

a foresight activity examines trends and indicators of possible future developments without predicting or describing a single state or timeline and is thus distinct from a forecast or scenario development activity (Salo and Cuhls, 2003; Martin and Irvine, 1989; Larson, 1999; Coates, 1985).

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