Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

Synopsis

Long-range thinking poses a dilemma. When the stakes are high, the problem complex, and the future starkly unfamiliar-preserving the earth's environment, ensuring the future of social security, or managing the implications of biotechnology, for example-experts turn to formal analytic tools to chart their way forward. But all these tools ultimately require the impossible: accurately predicting the long-term future. Scenario analysis has been used through much of RAND's five decades as a means to break through the limits on thinking about the unknown. The authors examine traditional analytic methods and discuss new tools and methods available to increase the power of longer-term policy analysis. This book describes these new methods and uses them in an example analysis to inform policies for sustainable development in the 21st century. This book will interest all those concerned with future assessment, longer-term planning and analysis, and research methodologies.
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