Estimating Crime Rates from Police Reports and Victim Surveys: Progressive Convergence in Time Series Analyses


Ansari tests and explains the progressive convergence between the UCR and NCVS crime data series using multi method approach and time seriesanalysis. Graphic and correlational analyses support the convergence between the two series for all categories. However, the cointegration test indicates that the series are cointegrated for burglary and are in the process of converging for robbery and violent crime. The results of autoregressive models show that police productivity in terms of crime reporting and the methodological changes in the NCVS in 1992 are significant factors that reduce the divergence between the UCR and NCVS data sets.

Additional information

Publisher: Place of publication:
  • El Paso, TX
Publication year:
  • 2013


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