Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors That Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence

Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors That Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence

Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors That Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence

Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors That Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence

Synopsis

Aid flowing into Syria is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between rebel factions and Damascus. Instead, it could perpetuate the civil war and ignite larger regional hostilities that could reshape the political geography of the Middle East. This report examines the main factors likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to neighboring states.

Excerpt

All roads lead to Damascus and then back out again but in different directions. The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from patrons and neighbors is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the regime in Damascus. Instead, this outside support has the potential to perpetuate the existing civil war and to ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas that could reshape the political geography of the Middle East. This study examines the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency and then examines how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.

This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).

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