The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for China in 2030

The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for China in 2030

The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for China in 2030

The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for China in 2030


"Researchers developed two scenarios to envision the future of mobility in China in 2030. Economic growth, the presence of constraints on vehicle ownership and driving, and environmental conditions differentiate the scenarios. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the team sought to help decision makers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change"--Provided by publisher.


No market in the world is as impressive not only in size but also in uncertainty about its future perspectives as China. For example, economic growth has slowed down in the past years but is still high compared with that in other regions. Are we going to see those rates stabilizing at levels close to today’s rates, or will the next 20 years be shaped by a totally different economic situation in China? The gap between different possible economic future scenarios is extremely large, reflecting the tremendous insecurity in the market.

But not only the economic situation is an important pace-setter for the mobility market of the future: Environmental regulation and other regulatory policy for transportation have the potential to either further promote strong growth in the car market or hinder it. At the moment, we observe mixed signals, with some cities strongly regulating the mobility market and others still pondering such measures. The way public transport systems in urban areas will be promoted in the future will also have a tremendous impact on the way the Chinese mobility market will look in 2030.

All of these factors are much less certain than they usually are in most other large markets. The combination of high uncertainty and market size make China an ideal candidate for creating scenarios on the future of the mobility market. Doing so helps us build a spectrum of different possible development perspectives and thus enables decisionmakers in mobility companies active in the Chinese market to prepare for a variety of possible future developments.

Dr. Markus Schramm BMW Group, Senior Vice President Corporate Planning and Product Strategy Member, ifmo Board of Trustees

Dr. Irene Feige ifmo, Head of the Institute . . .

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