Political Stability in Federal Governments

Political Stability in Federal Governments

Political Stability in Federal Governments

Political Stability in Federal Governments

Synopsis

Lemco investigates political, economic, and social conditions that theorists have associated with the stability or instability of federations. He collects and tests data pertaining to political, social, and economic conditions--reputed to be related to federal political stability. These conditions include the structure of politics, the impact of political freedom, the importance of the party system, and the relevance of ethnic and territorial cleavages. The associations among economic modernization, social mobilization, relative deprivation, and federal political stability are also analyzed.

Excerpt

In this study, the conditions affecting the emergence of political stability in the forty-four federations known to have existed in the past two hundred years are identified and tested. Federal systems have been chosen as avenues of study for a number of reasons. First, they possess a specific form of constitutional structure that lends itself to statistical analysis. In addition, they enjoy an unsubstantiated reputation for protecting regionally grouped diversities, thereby enabling human diversity to flourish. Finally, and most important, federal nation-states can concentrate power and authority in large central governments while diffusing the exercise of powers so as to give most, if not all, segments of society a constitutionally guaranteed share in the governing process.

After the theoretical literature concerning federalism and political stability is reviewed, data pertaining to political, social, and economic conditions that have been said to be related to federal political stability are collected and tested. These conditions include the structure of polities, the impact of political freedom, the importance of the party system, and the relevance of ethnically and territorially based cleavages. The association among economic modernization, social mobilization, relative deprivation, and federal political stability is also investigated.

The dependent variable "stability" is classified into five categories of long-term and short-term stability, each encompassing various related conditions including riots, protests, revolutions, and so on. The variables are then tested using a series of multivariate tests, including Discriminant analysis, Multiple Regression analysis, and most important, N-Chotomous Probit analysis.

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