Causation, Prediction, and Legal Analysis

Causation, Prediction, and Legal Analysis

Causation, Prediction, and Legal Analysis

Causation, Prediction, and Legal Analysis

Synopsis

Nagel draws on his experience as a practicing attorney and legal scholar to present a clear and concise discussion of the analytical methods in law which deal with causation and prediction. Within the legal arena, causal analysis explains the factors involved that cause legal policies/decisions to be adopted and the impact a legal policy is likely to have, and why. Predictive analysis is an attempt to forecast the outcome of a legal action and is especially useful for those involved in courtroom procedures. Causation, Prediction, and Legal Analysis is the only book available on this broadly focused subject, encompassing a thorough exposition of both the theory and application of causation and prediction.

Excerpt

The purpose of this book is to clarify various aspects of the analytic methods of causation and prediction as they relate to the legal process and related public policy situations. the clarification will be by both illustrative examples and general principles. the illustrative principles deal with aspects of the legal process such as sentencing, right to counsel, plea bargaining, client selection, pretrial release, crime prevention, delay reduction, and free press versus fair trial.

The book is organized into two main parts. One part deals with causal analysis and the second with predictive analysis. the definition of causal analysis in the context of the legal process and policy evaluation is twofold. It refers to the systematic attempt at, first, explaining the variation in goal achievement across diverse legal systems and, second, explaining what the impacts of different legal policies are likely to be and why. More specifically, causal analysis involves developing sets of propositions in these forms: (1) when X increases, Y or its opposite also increases with a reasonable amount of consistency; (2) X precedes Y in time; and (3) no third variable can be found that when held constant will substantially disrupt the relation between X and Y.

Predictive analysis, in the context of the legal process, tends to emphasize . . .

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