Corporate Planning, Human Behavior, and Computer Simulation: Forecasting Business Cycles

Corporate Planning, Human Behavior, and Computer Simulation: Forecasting Business Cycles

Corporate Planning, Human Behavior, and Computer Simulation: Forecasting Business Cycles

Corporate Planning, Human Behavior, and Computer Simulation: Forecasting Business Cycles

Synopsis

Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle--human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behavior into the process, and he provides a tool--computer simulation--which can be used for this purpose. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behavior and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business.
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