Force and Diplomacy in the Future

Force and Diplomacy in the Future

Force and Diplomacy in the Future

Force and Diplomacy in the Future

Synopsis

This study assesses the post-Cold War international environment in terms of its implications for the relationship between force and policy. Based on a retrospective look at U.S., NATO, and Soviet doctrine, Cimbala asserts that informed speculation about the post-Cold War world requires a sense of connection to the historical past. He believes that issues with which Europe was forced to deal prior to World War II will reappear in the aftermath of a socially reconstructed Soviet Union, a defunct Warsaw Pact, and a newly reunited Germany. Nationalism and economic competition will contend for the attention of policymakers along with traditional security issues for the remainder of the 1990s and thereafter.

Excerpt

Few observers of U.S. foreign and defense policy argue that the post- cold war world will be exactly like the cold war years. The more complicated issue is to ascertain exactly how the future will differ from the past. This book addresses one aspect of the post -- cold war world: the relationship between force and policy as it might be viewed by the major powers. One of the messages is that the very term "major powers" acquires a different coloration in a world permissive of nuclear technology diffusion and of the spread of other weapons of mass destruction to states outside the developed world.

The stability of a bipolar world may collapse along with the termination of cold war. The collapse of the Soviet Union as a single political entity in December 1991 symbolized the passage into a new world of strategy and diplomacy. Nevertheless, the role of military threat and sanction in preserving international peace and stability remains important. NATO may be transformed in its essence and the Warsaw Pact defunct, but the axial character of political and military conflict does not automatically shift from Europe to the Third World of Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Political conflicts on the periphery of the Eurasian heartland have the potential for spillover into European political, if not military, debacles. Eastern Europe, newly liberated from the omnipresence of Soviet military power and political control, must now contain the forces of nationalism and irredentism which threaten to spread from the Balkans outward. And, should civil war break out in the "commonwealth of independent states" or other successors to the once monolithic Soviet regime, no . . .

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