Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round: A Quantitative Assessment

Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round: A Quantitative Assessment

Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round: A Quantitative Assessment

Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round: A Quantitative Assessment

Excerpt

SINCE World War II, Europe, Japan, and the United States have dramatically reduced their protective barriers against imports through a succession of trade negotiations conducted within the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). International trade has grown at an unprecedented pace in these three decades, in part because of this continuous process of world trade liberalization and the related movements toward economic integration in Europe, which resulted in the total elimination of tariffs within a major trading region.

This study examines the present state of trade protection and the economic effects of future trade liberalization. We estimate the changes in trade flows, welfare benefits, employment, and exchange rates that could be expected from alternative types of liberalization of remaining tariff and nontariff barriers to trade. The study carries out these estimates for the United States, the European Economic Community (EEC), Japan, Canada, Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, and New Zealand. In addition, it considers prospective effects of the trade negotiations on the exports of the developing countries. The study therefore represents a comprehensive assessment of existing protection and the economic impact of trade liberalization for the industrial Western economies and for the Third World.

The immediate motivation for this study comes from the Tokyo Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. These negotiations, located in Geneva, have been in progress since 1974. A principal objective of the study is to provide a reliable basis for the evaluation of policy alternatives within the . . .

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