Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies

Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies

Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies

Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies

Excerpt

This supplemental volume contains background and reference materials to accompany the papers in the main volume. It has been designed with a spiral binding, enabling it to remain flat on a surface when opened, so that readers can readily consult its charts and tables simultaneously with their reading of the main volume.

The information here is more detailed than that in the main volume. Points of analysis and interpretation made in the main volume, however, are not repeated. It is assumed that users of this volume will read the chapters in the main volume.

After outlining the contents of this volume, these initial pages describe the research project and the participating models, discuss some important design issues that arose during the project, and summarize the instructions followed by model groups when preparing the simulations.

Part 2 of this volume then presents reference charts that compare the simulation results across models. A sequence of charts is provided for each simulation, beginning with the baseline (simulation A). Each chart plots the time paths of individual variables as generated by all twelve models (or by as many models as reported the variable in question). The initial letter of a chart's label indicates the simulation in which the results were generated; the number refers to the chart's position in the sequence of charts for that simulation. For example, chart D-5 shows the models' time paths for the short-term interest rate in the United States, the fifth chart in the series comparing the results for simulation D; chart F-10 shows the current account balance for all OECD countries other than the United States (the ROECD region), the tenth chart in the series for simulation F.

In addition to comparative charts, part 2 includes a table of summary statistics for each of the simulations B through H. For nine key variables and for each of the six years of the simulations, these tables show the mean values, standard deviations, and ranges (difference between the maximum and minimum) of the responses across the participating models. Each table for a simulation--for example, table B for simulation B--follows the charts for that simulation.

Part 3 of this volume presents standardized, detailed tables of the simulation results, presented model by model (and, for each model, simulation by simulation). These tables give the fullest account of the simulation results in the two volumes.1.

Part 4 of this volume provides a listing of bibliographical references. After a few general references on empirical modeling in a multicountry context, the remaining references are organized by model group. Within the references for a given model group, the ordering is alphabetical.

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